jeremy's blog

Being an energy geek I've been forwarded an e-mail about the Bakken formation on several occasions, which basically says it will make everything better. Some of the e-mails had vague claims that environmentalists wouldn't... something or other.

Anyway, here is the short version and you can read the following for details. I really hope there is more the the roughly 5 billion barrels of recoverable oil that is currently reported by the oil geologists as it's their opinion that counts. Actually I hope there is considerably more then 100 billion barrels because it makes our job a hell of a lot easier AND... it doesn't change the long term policy decisions.   Please keep in mind that that in the context of 80 million barrels a day of worldwide oil consumption, the trajectory doesn't really change if Bakken had 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil with fairly high daily flow rates. 

How I came to the above conclusion:

Starting at the top, it is not that the world is running out of oil, there is at least 1 trillion barrels of recoverable, conventional oil. The problem is what is left takes considerably more energy to extract/refine/... AND the most important part is the amount that can be extracted in a given day appears to have flattened out. Unconventional oil (ultra deep water, tar sands, natural gas condensates (not LNG)), were taking up the slack before the economy tanked and destroyed a fair bit of demand. Sadly the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico also demonstrated that deep water oil is extremely complicated, expensive, and when things go wrong...

While there might be crazy amounts of shale/tar/... that can be converted into oil from the Bakken formation, Colorado shale, or Alberta tar sands, it is the amount that could be extracted and refined in a given day/week is the number that really counts. It is also important to note how much fresh water is necessary to use in processing. Last I heard it took somewhere between three and five barrels of water to produce one barrel of oil from oil tar or shale.

Given the expanding economies (now more slowly) in oil exporting countries, and the skyrocketing demand for oil in India and China, combined with the aging super-giant oil fields (who's production is flat or declining [note #1]) it wouldn't really change the long term trend if Bakken was 100 billion barrels. This is because even if world wide consumption of oil was increasing at only 3% per year, oil demand would double in 23 years [note #2].

I really hope there more then 100 billion barrels of available oil in Bakken, AND it doesn't really change the long term policy choices we need to make. The following blurb is from the US Department of Energy from 2005 titled: "PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT" [note #3]

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

The US Army Corp of Engineers came to a nearly identical conclusion [note #4]

Petroleum Trends
The oil market will remain fairly stable in the very near term, but with steadily increasing prices as world production approaches its peak. The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines. The disruption of world oil markets may also affect world natural gas markets since
most of the natural gas reserves are collocated with the oil reserves.

#1 http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/giantoilfields.pdf
#2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubling_time
#3 http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
#4 http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTR...  

I presented this 90 minute intro to permaculture at a Multnomah County conference a few weeks ago.

Borrowing a line from a friend, this broccoli has an excellent supply of vitamin purple, or at least I think it's purple.  This broccoli has overwintered rather magnificently and goes to demonstrate that broccoli plants are perennials and that if you don't rip them out of the ground, they'll just keep going.

The reason I ask if anyone can read Basque is I was interviewed by a reporter from Spain and just got a copy of his article (page 1, page 2).  Sadly bablefish doesn't have a Basque to English converter, but I can make out my name and Transition PDX on page 2.  The article is reportedlyy titled "Portland, the green vanguard of the United States".

Funny in the same week I have my 1st live TV interview (on cable access and I'll have the video in a few weeks) and 1st international interview.  Though a few years a back I was interviewed by the Oregonian for Working on empty: Planning for oil's end, an article about the creation of the City of Portland's Peak Oil Taskforce.  

Identified Need:  On one hand, Multnomah County is at the epicenter of the local food movement and is progressive in identifying and attempting to manage the social determinants of health, but on the other hand, half of all the adults in Multnomah County are either overweight or obese; chronic diseases like diabetes and heart disease are on the rise; half of all Multnomah County children will be on food stamps at one point in their childhood; our economic plans don’t include food, and only about 10% of the food that we consume is grown locally.  What we lack is a shared vision and a strategic action plan to achieve a truly sustainable, healthy, and equitable food system for all. 

Goal: To develop a shared community vision and collaborative food action plan to promote a sustainable, healthy, and equitable food system. 

Framework:  Host a Food Summit in early 2010 to develop a shared community vision for our local food system and to develop a 15 year community action plan with objectives, goals, and metrics under a distributed ownership model.  

Outcomes:

• Food Summit Outcomes
  
  • Networked food system constituency
  • Regional linkages in food system strengthened
  • Shared community vision & ownership of actions
  • Foundation for planning effort
• Action Plan Outcomes (draft)
  
  • Food system is relocalized to extent practicable
  • Healthy food choice is the easy choice for all our residents 

Roles:

• Multnomah County will act as convener and facilitator for process
• Steering Committee will co-host Food Summit and help lead the planning effort
• All stakeholders and participants will jointly share responsibility for implementation

Phases & Timeline:

1. Food Summit (early 2010)
2. Action Plan Development (mid 2010)
3. Action Plan Implementation (2011-2025)

Action Plan Structure:  organize under the categories of foodshed (supply), healthy eating (demand), equity, and local economic vitality. 

Shared Governance Structure:  TBD

Identified Need:  On one hand, Multnomah County is at the epicenter of the local food movement and is progressive in identifying and attempting to manage the social determinants of health, but on the other hand, half of all the adults in Multnomah County are either overweight or obese; chronic diseases like diabetes and heart disease are on the rise; half of all Multnomah County children will be on food stamps at one point in their childhood; our economic plans don’t include food, and only about 10% of the food that we consume is grown locally.  What we lack is a shared vision and a strategic action plan to achieve a truly sustainable, healthy, and equitable food system for all. 

Goal: To develop a shared community vision and collaborative food action plan to promote a sustainable, healthy, and equitable food system. 

Framework:  Host a Food Summit in early 2010 to develop a shared community vision for our local food system and to develop a 15 year community action plan with objectives, goals, and metrics under a distributed ownership model.  

Outcomes:

• Food Summit Outcomes
  
  • Networked food system constituency
  • Regional linkages in food system strengthened
  • Shared community vision & ownership of actions
  • Foundation for planning effort
• Action Plan Outcomes (draft)
  
  • Food system is relocalized to extent practicable
  • Healthy food choice is the easy choice for all our residents

Roles:

• Multnomah County will act as convener and facilitator for process
• Steering Committee will co-host Food Summit and help lead the planning effort
• All stakeholders and participants will jointly share responsibility for implementation

Phases & Timeline:

1. Food Summit (early 2010)
2. Action Plan Development (mid 2010)
3. Action Plan Implementation (2011-2025)

Action Plan Structure:  organize under the categories of foodshed (supply), healthy eating (demand), equity, and local economic vitality. 

Shared Governance Structure:  TBD

Draft template for the Multnomah Food Initiative.