The world's shortest Peak Oil article

The world's shortest Peak Oil article
Jeffrey J. Brown, EnergyBulletin
Three points:

(1) Mathematically, based on the Hubbert Linearization method, the world is now where the Lower 48 and the North Sea peaked and declined (all crude + condensate).

(2) Through July, 2006 (based on EIA Data), the world has produced about 142 million barrels less oil than if we had simply maintained the 12/05 production rate. This is a shortfall of about 675,000 bpd. During this time period, oil prices traded in the highest (nominal) price range in history.

(3) We are virtually certain that all four oil fields currently producing one mbpd or more are in decline (we are certain that three of the four are in decline).

Given the foregoing, what is the probability that the observed production decline is a coincidence, and not the onset of a permanent decline in conventional crude + condensate production?

Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. His e-mail address is westexas@aol.com

(13 Oct 2006)