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The Unforgettable Commencement Address by Paul Hawken to the Class of 2009, University of Portland

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http://globalmindshift.wordpress.com/2009/05/21/the-unforgettable-commencement-address-by-paul-hawken-to-the-class-of-2009-university-of-portland-may-3-2009/ 

The Unforgettable Commencement Address by Paul Hawken to the Class of 2009, University of Portland, May 3, 2009

May 21, 2009 · 26 Comments

When I was invited to give this speech, I was asked if I could give a simple short talk that was “direct, naked, taut, honest, passionate, lean, shivering, startling, and graceful.” Boy, no pressure there.

But let’s begin with the startling part. Hey, Class of 2009: you are going to have to figure out what it means to be a human being on earth at a time when every living system is declining, and the rate of decline is accelerating. Kind of a mind-boggling situation… but not one peer-reviewed paper published in the last thirty years can refute that statement. Basically, the earth needs a new operating system, you are the programmers, and we need it within a few decades.

“…the earth needs a new operating system, you are the programmers, and we need it within a few decades.”

This planet came with a set of operating instructions, but we seem to have misplaced them. Important rules like don’t poison the water, soil, or air, and don’t let the earth get overcrowded, and don’t touch the thermostat have been broken. Buckminster Fuller said that spaceship earth was so ingeniously designed that no one has a clue that we are on one, flying through the universe at a million miles per hour, with no need for seatbelts, lots of room in coach, and really good food, but all that is changing.

There is invisible writing on the back of the diploma you will receive, and in case you didn’t bring lemon juice to decode it, I can tell you what it says: YOU ARE BRILLIANT, AND THE EARTH IS HIRING. The earth couldn’t afford to send any recruiters or limos to your school. It sent you rain, sunsets, ripe cherries, night blooming jasmine, and that unbelievably cute person you are dating. Take the hint. And here’s the deal: Forget that this task of planet-saving is not possible in the time required. Don’t be put off by people who know what is not possible. Do what needs to be done, and check to see if it was impossible only after you are done.

When asked if I am pessimistic or optimistic about the future, my answer is always the same: If you look at the science about what is happening on earth and aren’t pessimistic, you don’t understand data. But if you meet the people who are working to restore this earth and the lives of the poor, and you aren’t optimistic, you haven’t got a pulse. What I see everywhere in the world are ordinary people willing to confront despair, power, and incalculable odds in order to restore some semblance of grace, justice, and beauty to this world. The poet Adrienne Rich wrote, “So much has been destroyed I have cast my lot with those who, age after age, perversely, with no extraordinary power, reconstitute the world.” There could be no better description. Humanity is coalescing. It is reconstituting the world, and the action is taking place in schoolrooms, farms, jungles, villages, campuses, companies, refuge camps, deserts, fisheries, and slums.

“YOU ARE BRILLIANT, AND THE EARTH IS HIRING.”

A Road Map to U.S. Decarbonization

http://www.energybulletin.net/20191.html
Published on 8 Sep 2006 by Science Magazine. Archived on 8 Sep 2006.

A Road Map to U.S. Decarbonization

by Reuel Shinnar and Francesco Citro

Today, 85% of the United States' energy mix comes from carbon-rich fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal (1). With demand increasing worldwide, existing oil reserves could peak within 20 years (2), followed by natural gas and coal. Growing fuel use is increasing CO2 and CH4 emissions and the risk of global warming. The United States has responded by sponsoring research into alternative energy (3). However, because research success is not predictable, an effective plan must be based on proven technologies. We propose to switch our economy slowly (over 30 to 50 or more years) to nonfossil energy sources by using proven technologies and available, expandable distribution systems.

Because all available energy technologies have limitations (see table [in original]), a comprehensive plan should include several options:

1. Concentrated solar thermal (CST) energy with storage, a proven technology for electricity generation (4), can provide variable energy, to compensate for fluctuations in demand, for a large fraction of U.S. energy needs.

2. Nuclear energy. New and safer designs, not yet built on a commercial scale, merit construction. The implementation of a large nuclear capacity [1000 gigawatts (GW)] requires study regarding the long-range availability of nuclear fuel and the disposal of accumulated waste. Present nuclear plants are used for base power, only 40% of our electricity needs.

3. Geothermal and hydroelectric plants. However, their total output is limited.

4. Wind. The amount of uncontrollable electricity the grid can accept from this highly variable source is limited.

5. Solar cells. Sunlight is available for only part of the day. Like wind power generators, solar cells lack storage capacity. However, unlike CST, solar cells can be widely distributed.

6. Biomass. The only renewable source of industrial petrochemical feedstocks and fuels for trucks and aviation that cannot be provided by electricity is biomass, but only a limited amount can be grown. Proven technologies for generating syngas by combining carbon oxides (from partial oxidation of biomass) with H2 (from electrolysis) can currently generate three to four times the product yield obtainable by fermentation (5).

A discussion of decarbonization should also include CO2 sequestration, a technology available only for new coal power plants (6). This technology depletes valuable fossil fuel resources and is more expensive than CST and nuclear (4). It is doubtful that it will play a major role in the near to midterm future.

...Conclusions

Except for H2, all the technologies we consider could become competitive with crude oil at $70 per barrel. Our main objective, however, should be to implement the best technology for eliminating dependency on fossil fuels rather than to compete with coal or cheap oil. Investment in demonstration plants and in large-scale implementations will be required.

Approximate cost estimates (4, 7) to replace 70% of our fossil fuel use (including most coal) are about $170 to $200 billion per year over 30 years. At current levels of CO2 emission, a tax of $45 to $50 per ton of CO2 would pay for the whole investment and provide incentives for implementing renewable technologies (5).

We must start now, as our country does not have the resources to complete this switch within a few years. The United States must create long-range incentives (such as a CO2 tax or tax credits) large enough to induce companies and utilities to implement proven technologies and to provide the required infrastructure. A successful U.S. program can set an example for the rest of the world, as many of the key technologies are well suited to developing countries. Once the technologies are established on a large scale and are mass-produced, these costs should go down by a factor of 2, making them competitive and reducing the need for subsidies. The required increase in the electric distribution system poses problems, such as obtaining rights of way for new distribution lines, that only the federal government can handle. There are political hurdles, but we believe they can be overcome.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The original article is subscription-only. Note the reference to peak oil within 20 years. The article seems to reflect the thinking common in scientific circles. Three things about the article dismay me:

China to US: we don't want your stinking US Dollars any more

Of course that isn't exactly what they said, but hang on to your hat because things just got a whole lot more interesting as China just announced that they were moving away from using US dollars and buying US government debt. As China and Japan own most of the US debt this could easily cause some massive economic problems.

China indicated on Thursday it could begin to diversify its rapidly growing foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar and government bonds – a potential shift with significant implications for global financial and commodity markets.

While the US does have a massive debt, the fact it is mostly stored in US dollars it makes much of the problem a lot more manageable.

CiviCRM hacking & Try/on Life Community Farm

Over the last few days I have been madly hacking away on a CiviCRM project for Try/on Life Farm (TLC) as thye race to raise the money to buy the land so they can keep the area as TLC and not McMansions.  As you likely have figured out my contribution to this project is managing their data so it can be used more efficiently in the stretch run.

Anyway back to CiviCRM, this is my first time working with a CRM so I don't have a strong point of reference but I have to say that it seems to do most of the things that I want to do as of yet.  I have been kicking around the idea of using the CiviCRM as my personal address book as I have never been happy with any of the electronic address books that I have worked with.

Peak Oil & the stock market

Tonight Emily and many people from Portland Peak Oil attended a presentation titled "Energy: A World Without Oil" with Kenneth Deffeyes as the keynote speaker. I have to thank the financial group who put on the presentation, but from the looks of things more then half of the people in the audience where from the peak oil school of thought.

It was typically creepy to see people trying to figure out how to profit on declining oil and and all the faith put in growth, thankfully Kenneth Deffeyes answered a rather concise "NO" to a question of is all this growth possible.

I did hear a few of the good things about hydrogen generation and usage. I should mention that I think _WAY_ too much faith has been put into the hydrogen economy and on the Canadian tar sands. Anyway the two fairly sane things about fuel cells powered by hydrogen are:

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